Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Super Bowl LIX odds are inviting plenty of action on the typical game markets — point spread, moneyline and total — and even more so on the myriad alternatives. Prop bets are wildly popular, not only with the public betting masses but with those one-time-a-year bettors.
Joey Feazel, head of football trading for Caesars Sports, helps break down five popular Super Bowl bets, ahead of Sunday’s Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles showdown on FOX.
No. 1: Eagles Moneyline
The point spread is probably the most familiar wager in NFL betting. But the moneyline is much more crystal clear: You’re just betting on which team wins the game.
Period.
For the past 10 days, sportsbooks across the nation reported seeing strong Eagles moneyline play, and Caesars Sports is no exception.
Philadelphia is currently -105 on the moneyline, which means a $105 bet would win $100 (total payout of $205) if the Eagles are victorious Sunday.
“Eagles moneyline is the most popular bet on the game itself,” Feazel said. “I think part of it is the public doesn’t like the Chiefs as much anymore. The Chiefs have entered Patriots territory — you either love them or you hate them.”
There’s a second component, though. And it’s one that’s recognized by sharp bettors.
“If you look at the season as a whole, the perception is that the Eagles are the better team. And the sharps are on the Eagles, as well,” Feazel said.
No. 2: Coin Toss
Ah, yes. There’s nothing quite like settling a bet before the game even kicks off, in this case around 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday.
And even though winning or losing is literally a coin flip, this market always draws heavy action.
“It’s usually the most-bet Super Bowl prop every year,” Feazel said. “People love a quick decision, first thing. That’s attractive. There’s no skill involved and no need for research.”
At Caesars, both Heads and Tails have -105 odds, meaning again that it takes a $105 bet to win $100 (total payout of $205).
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No. 3: Successful 2-Point Conversion
Like many Super Bowl prop bets, this is a Yes/No market.
Midweek at Caesars, No is a -300 favorite, with Yes a +240 underdog.
Per usual, the public is all over Yes, in part due to that +240 price. A $100 bet would profit $240 (total payout of $340), if there’s a successful 2-point conversion.
But there’s some logic going on here, too.
“The Tush Push is giving this prop that extra traffic,” Feazel said of the Eagles’ patented short-yardage play for QB Jalen Hurts. “Ninety percent of the action is on Yes.”
Feazel painted this very possible scenario: After a touchdown, Philly lines up to go for two points. Kansas City jumps offsides. The ball then moves half the distance, to the 1-yard line, which is prime Tush Push range.
“I’m sure this has crossed the minds of many bettors,” he said. “And two Super Bowls ago, Hurts got the Octopus — the TD and the 2-point conversion. That lines up with this 2-point proposition.”
No. 4: Interception In The End Zone
If you think there will be an interception in the end zone, then you might want to sprinkle a few dollars on this Super Bowl prop bet at Caesars. The odds are +700, so a $100 bet would profit a handsome $700 (total payout of $800).
“This is a new one we put up this year. I think it’s the new part that’s attractive to customers,” Feazel said, while again painting a perfectly reasonable picture of how it could happen. “It’s the Hail Mary aspect. Maybe late in the first half, the offense takes a shot. There are extra defensive backs on the field.
“It’s a no-loss scenario, before halftime.”
And there are actually two ways to cash in on this bet, as Feazel pointed out. The second scenario: The Eagles offense is pinned on its goal line, Hurts drops back, has his pass deflected, and the Chiefs intercept the ball in the end zone for a touchdown.
That’s a winner. At 7/1, that’d be pretty nice.
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No. 5: Passing Touchdown From A Non-QB
Of the four Super Bowl prop bets mentioned in this piece, this one pays the best, at +1000. That means a $100 bet would profit $1,000 (total payout of $1,100).
You just need someone other than a quarterback to throw a touchdown pass — which is hardly out of the question. It’s occurred three times in the last seven Super Bowls.
“It happened last year, Jauan Jennings to Christian McCaffrey,” Feazel said of the 49ers hookup in Super Bowl 58. “This is a popular prop every year. It looks like every team has this in their playbook and tends to try it, especially in the Super Bowl.
“It’s the last game. There are plays teams haven’t used all season, and this is usually one of them.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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