In December, the Cubs gave up top prospect Cam Smith, All-Star infielder Isaac Paredes and 27-year-old right-hander Hayden Wesneski for one guaranteed year of Kyle Tucker suiting up on the north side of Chicago. The blockbuster trade with the Houston Astros finally gave the Cubs a superstar, a roster need that was a handful of years overdue, and it undeniably upgraded a deadweight offense that was just 1% above league average in 2024.
In a vacuum, trading for Tucker was a win for the Cubs and their understandably irritated fan base. They haven’t seen the team advance past October’s wild-card round since 2017. Tucker — a three-time All-Star, World Series winner and MVP candidate — makes the Cubs the favorites to win the National League Central, one of the weakest divisions in the major leagues. The trade showed a level of urgency that’s been remiss for the past several years.
But Tucker, for all the hype around his upcoming season, is just a one-year rental. The Gold Glove right fielder will step into free agency at the end of the season and command a lucrative contract that is expected to be skyward of $300 million. We’ve seen the market favor high-impact players who are under 30, and Tucker will be entering his age-29 season next year. It’s unlikely the Cubs reach an extension with Tucker before he hits the market because, as one of the sport’s most elite players, why would he potentially leave money on the table after seeing how the Juan Soto sweepstakes played out this past winter?
So the former Silver Slugger is all but certain to explore free agency no matter what happens with the Cubs this year. Knowing this, fans expected Cubs owner Tom Ricketts and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer to continue building a dominant roster around Tucker to signal that they’re really going for it in 2025. Even as late in the offseason as February, when players had already started trickling into spring camps, there was hope that the Cubs would sign free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman to fill their opening at the premium position.
Instead, the Cubs whiffed on Bregman, made a series of low-to-mid-level signings and operated like a small-market team.
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Unloading outfielder Cody Bellinger’s contract to the Yankees allowed the Cubs to dip $34 million below the first luxury-tax line, and then there were crickets. Left-hander Matthew Boyd signed a two-year, $29 million contract, but he’s essentially just a replacement for the departures of Drew Smyly and Kyle Hendricks. They reportedly tried to sign top free-agent closer Tanner Scott, but wound up trading with the Astros again, this time for veteran reliever Ryan Pressly. In terms of free-agent splashes, Chicago has remained incredibly stubborn to spend — outside of manager Craig Counsell’s five-year, $40 million contract, that is.
Remember: the Cubs are one of the most prominent franchises in Major League Baseball, valued at more than $5 billion, according to Sportico, with a rich history and a passionate fanbase. And yet, the Athletics, Angels, Tigers and yes, even the Rays, outspent them this winter. If winning was a priority, the Cubs should have done more to build a strong supporting cast around Tucker. But it increasingly seems like they gave up future talent and team control to meet the bare minimum.
Sure, they have a solid shot at winning the division and getting into the playoffs, where health and luck are major factors in giving any team the opportunity to make a run for it. FanGraphs projects the Cubs to win around 84 games, which is right in line with their back-to-back 83-win seasons of the past two years, and that wasn’t enough to qualify for the playoffs in either year. It certainly won’t be enough to compete with a stacked National League, either.
As the Cubs gear up for the Tokyo Series against the almighty Dodgers on Tuesday, it looks more and more like trading for Tucker simply wasn’t enough to make them serious contenders. There’s now heightened pressure on a young roster that needs more star power, to go along with the legitimate concerns and unanswered questions about their pitching depth. Still, there are bright spots to look forward to.
The Cubs No. 1 prospect, 23-year-old third baseman Matt Shaw, is making his major-league debut at the Tokyo Dome, and he has a legitimate shot at winning the NL Rookie of the Year award. Outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong will be a delight to watch as he takes over full-time center field duties this year while he tries to find consistency at the plate. Shortstop Dansby Swanson and second baseman Nico Hoerner make a terrific double-play duo up the middle. Southpaw Shota Imanaga will look to build off his special rookie campaign, and left-hander Justin Steele is entering his prime. And there’s potential for a 30-30 season from Tucker.
So, there are plenty of reasons to expect butts in the seats at Wrigley Field this year. But the Cubs don’t struggle with attendance. It’s all that spending on top-tier talent that they just can’t seem to figure out how to do.
Deesha Thosar is a MLB reporter and columnist for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets for four years as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Kyle Tucker
Chicago Cubs
Major League Baseball
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