Jason McIntyre
Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The college basketball madness officially begins this week. This should be an absolute blast.
Last week, I gave you four teams whose title futures were worth a wager. This week, I’m focusing on the first round.
Let’s dive into a few squads that I think will make some noise over the next few days.
And yes, I even threw a parlay in there for good measure.
No. 16 SIU Edwardsville @ No. 1 Houston
No. 16 Norfolk State @ No. 1 Florida
Massive numbers to lay, and you won’t get rich consistently betting four-touchdown favorites, but it’s an easy way to dip your toe into the tournament. Besides Duke, these are the two best teams in the country, and they should annihilate their opponents in the first round. Their speed and tenacity — specifically on defense — overwhelms teams that haven’t seen it before.
Houston won last year’s first-round game as a 1-seed by 40, and this year’s team is better. If you don’t like the parlay, consider the Gators to eclipse their team total, as the top-ranked offense in the country faces a defense that rates 217th.
PICK: Parlay Houston (-29) to win by more than 29 points and Florida (-28) to win by more than 28 points
No. 12 UC San Diego @ No. 5 Michigan
I wrote about the Tritons last week in this space. Then they won the Big West Tournament, and now they are a sexy pick to topple Michigan. None of the 5-seed teams are impressive, and Michigan is coming off a great run in the Big Ten Tournament. In recent history, teams that win that tourney perform poorly in March Madness. Two of the last three Big Ten tourney champs lost in the first round (Iowa, Purdue). This is a potential matchup nightmare for Michigan, which ranks 328th in the country in turnover percentage. UC San Diego ranks second in forcing turnovers. Michigan ranks 195th in 3-point shooting and 159th in free throw shooting. UC San Diego is 57th and 93rd, respectively.
Sure, Michigan could just pound it inside to the two 7-footers and just wear down the thin Tritons. UC San Diego doesn’t have a bench to handle foul problems or any rotation player over 6-foot-8. But I’m betting on rising coaching star Eric Olen and the Tritons to keep it close long enough to cover and perhaps win outright.
PICK: UC San Diego (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright
March Madness early best bets: Predictions, odds & wagers
No. 12 Colorado State @ No. 5 Memphis
The Rams snuck up on Virginia last year in the tourney to pull a mild upset, and this year, they’re favored over the 5-seed Tigers. Colorado State has the best player on the court, 23-year-old Nique Clifford — a scoring machine who has six games of 25 points or more this season.
Memphis won’t reveal the status of point guard Tyrese Hunter, who has had memorable moments for Iowa State and Texas. He was in a walking boot on Sunday, and it’s unclear if he’ll play. If he doesn’t play, the Rams should cruise to victory.
PICK: Colorado State (-2) to win by more than 2 points
No. 14 Montana @ No. 3 Wisconsin
Can’t tell if I like Montana in the first half or full game, so I might just bet them both.
The Badgers looked great, winning four games in four days to reach the Big Ten title game, before wilting late against Michigan. Wisconsin scouts the league so well. The Badgers always seem to perform great in the Big Ten tourney, then disappoint in the actual Tournament. Last year, they reached their conference final, lost, then laid an egg against JMU in the first round. They didn’t cover against Colgate in the first round in 2022 and trailed by five early in the second half.
So four games in four days and now Wisconsin has to travel to altitude to play an early game on Thursday. Suboptimal.
The reluctance is that Montana’s defense is horrible, and the Big Sky has been underwhelming in March. In the last 20 years, the league is 1-20, with Montana securing the only win, back in 2006 over Nevada. It’s possible I’m a round early on my dislike for Wisconsin here. But the Badgers will for sure get got by VCU or BYU in the second round.
PICK: Montana (+9.5 first half) to trail by fewer than 9.5 points or lead at halftime
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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