Chris Fallica
FOX Sports Wagering Expert
“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
I literally can’t stop talking about college basketball, and I’m not mad at it.
The first round of the NCAA Tournament begins Thursday and continues Friday.
And with that, I’m not getting too far ahead of myself quite yet.
Here are my best bets for the Round of 64, and a few futures bets.
No. 9 Creighton vs. No. 8 Louisville
I’m curious if a three pops by tip, because I’m guessing the world will be on the Cards playing in their home state. But the ACC was down bad this year and Louisville played four non-conference games against NCAA tourney teams, losing to Tennessee by 22, Oklahoma by 5, Ole Miss by 23 and Kentucky by 8. It was a total surprise turnaround season in Pat Kelsey’s first year, but I think it comes to an end against the inside-outside combo of Steven Ashworth and Ryan Kalkbrenner.
PICK: Creighton (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points or win outright
No. 9 Georgia vs. No. 8 Gonzaga
UGA has wins over a 1-seed and 2-seed this year, in Florida and St. John’s, respectively. This is a talented team. Yes, it has had its fair share of late-game meltdowns, costing it a few more wins. While top-10 in KenPom, I’m not in on Gonzaga laying points here. It beat Baylor in the season opener and Saint Mary’s in the WCC title game, but didn’t do much to impress in between. I know I’m potentially bucking the trend of Gonzaga winning in the first round, but I’ll be taking Asa Newell & Co. plus the points.
PICK: Georgia (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points or win outright
No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 8 Connecticut
This number feels high. It’s like you’re paying extra because of the Connecticut name. This UConn team does not have the rim protectors that the previous two national champions had. At minimum, this should be a higher-scoring game, but Oklahoma has a chance to beat the defending champs. The Sooners put together a good non-conference slate, but then went 7-13 in SEC play, including the tourney, dropping a bunch of close games, including Kentucky twice. Maybe I’ll feel like a fool should the Huskies continue their NCAA tourney success, but I’ll grab OU here.
PICK: Oklahoma (+5.5) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points or win outright
No. 10 Utah State vs. No. 7 UCLA
I think UCLA has a chance to make some noise in the tourney. Mick Cronin’s team will be anxious to get past a no-show against Wisconsin in the Big Ten tourney, and it gets to do it against a double-digit seeded Mountain West team. That’s been a great recipe in past tourneys, given the MWC lack of success in this role. The defense of UCLA will keep Utah State from good perimeter looks and advance the Bruins.
PICK: UCLA (-5.5) to win by more than 5.5 points
March Madness first-round best bets
No. 12 UC San Diego vs. No. 5 Michigan
The Tritons will be a massive public side, but if you like UCSD, then don’t let that dissuade you. There are cases to be made for both sides. Michigan turns the ball over a ton, and UCSD forces a bunch of turnovers. Yet, Michigan has a massive size advantage, so Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf should have huge games. I think that adds up to a higher-scoring game in which Michigan should get some easy points inside — and maybe a parade to the free throw line — while UCSD might get a bunch of easy points off turnovers.
PICK: Michigan-UCSD to score more than 142.5 points combined
No. 10 Vanderbilt vs. No. 7 Saint Mary’s
I’ve never been on board with Saint Mary’s advancing far in the tourney, but I think the Gaels have a good draw here. Vandy really struggles defensively and that should play into SMC’s hands, as the Gaels offense should not only good shots, but second chances, too.
PICK: Saint Mary’s (-4) to win by more than 4 points
No. 13 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 Maryland
Talk about a tough task for the Terps: travel to Seattle and face a team based out West that is healthy, loves to run and gets to the free throw line. How are the Terps, who aren’t deep to begin with, going to stay fresh and foul-free? That starting five is very good, but how this game is officiated will determine how much of a chance the Lopes have to pull the outright upset, as they did last year.
PICK: Grand Canyon (+10.5) to lose by fewer than 10.5 points or win outright
Houston to win region, to win title
Prices on the Cougars are great, as they are the forgotten 1-seed. And they also got a great path through the region. This team defends like nothing else and shoots it better than it has in years past. Injuries have held this team back in the past, so that’s always a risk, but this bunch has lost four games all season, with three coming in overtime. You’re gonna have to play 40 — or more — and do it in an elite, physical grind mode to beat Houston.
PICK: Houston to win region (+140), to win title (+650)
Texas Tech to win region, to win title
The Red Raiders — Darrion Williams, et al. — should be healthy for the games that matter in the Tournament, and when they hit shots like they did against Baylor, it’s almost impossible to beat them. A St. John’s Sweet 16 game would be must-see TV. I love this Tech team, as it is deep, can score and is just unphased by anything.
PICK: Texas Tech to win region (+500), to win title (+3000)
Arizona to win region
I’ve often poked fun at the Cats’ NCAA tourney debacles under Tommy Lloyd, but I’ve come around on this team. It gets a really good matchup on the interior with Akron, which often plays four guards and loves to shoot the 3. Then, Arizona would get the Oregon-Liberty winner. If Duke’s injury problems aren’t solved, I give Zona a great chance at pulling the upset.
PICK: Arizona (+900) to win region
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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